Molfar Intelligence
Published case work on transhipment networks, investor screening and sanctioned-asset tracing, with source-referenced findings.
Read our reviewPolitical Risk Examples in Business: 10 Macro and Micro Cases
Ten documented cases, from Venezuela and Russia to the North Sea, the Sahel and the Strait of Hormuz, each with what happened, what it cost and what an assessment would have flagged.
Key Takeaways
- Political risk is not hypothetical. BP took $25.5bn of pre-tax charges in one quarter when it exited Russia in 2022.
- Expropriation still happens, from Venezuela's oil seizures to Niger's 2025 nationalisation of a uranium venture.
- Developed countries create political risk too: the UK's Energy Profits Levy rose from 25% to 38% between 2022 and 2024.
- Legal remedies are slow and uncertain: a $16.1bn US judgment against Argentina over YPF was reversed on appeal in March 2026.
- Geopolitical shocks hit routes and supply chains, as Red Sea attacks in 2024 and the Gulf war in 2026 showed.
- Most cases had warning signs that a structured assessment would have flagged in advance.
What Are Examples of Political Risk in Business?
Common political risk examples are expropriation (Venezuela, Argentina, Niger), sanctions (BP's Russia exit, OFSI penalties), windfall taxes (the UK Energy Profits Levy), contract renegotiation (Mali), political violence (Red Sea shipping) and trade policy shifts (US tariffs).
| Case | Type | Macro or micro | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venezuela expropriates ConocoPhillips' oil projects | Expropriation | Macro | 2007; award 2019 |
| Argentina nationalises YPF | Expropriation | Macro | 2012; reversed 2026 |
| BP exits Rosneft after the invasion of Ukraine | Sanctions and conflict | Macro | 2022 |
| The UK's Energy Profits Levy | Tax change | Micro (sector) | 2022–2030 |
| Niger nationalises the Somair uranium venture | Expropriation after a coup | Micro (company) | 2025 |
| Mali and Barrick's Loulo-Gounkoto mine | Contract renegotiation | Micro (company) | 2023–2025 |
| Red Sea shipping attacks | Political violence | Macro (route) | 2023–2024 |
| The Gulf war and the Strait of Hormuz | Conflict | Macro | 2026 |
| US tariffs reset twice in 2026 | Trade policy | Macro | 2026 |
| A UK company fined for dealing with a sanctioned airline | Sanctions | Micro (company) | 2026 |
What Is the Difference Between Macro and Micro Political Risk Examples?
Macro examples affect every foreign business in a country or on a route, such as war or capital controls. Micro examples target one sector, project or company, such as a mining code or a licence review.
The same event can be both. A coup is a macro event; the nationalisation of one company's mine that follows it is micro. Telling them apart helps decide the response: macro risk is about whether and how much to invest, micro risk about structure, partners and contract terms. See what political risk is for the full set of types.
Ten Documented Cases and What They Teach
1. Venezuela expropriates ConocoPhillips' oil projects (2007; award 2019)
Venezuela took over three heavy-oil projects in 2007. An ICSID tribunal in 2019 ordered it to pay ConocoPhillips about $8.7bn plus interest; collecting the award has taken years. (IISD)
What an assessment would have flagged: Resource nationalism, a government rewriting fiscal terms, and treaty protection as the only real remedy.
2. Argentina nationalises YPF (2012; reversed 2026)
Argentina expropriated a 51% stake in the oil company YPF in 2012. A US district court awarded minority shareholders about $16.1bn in September 2023, but the Second Circuit reversed the judgment on 27 March 2026. (Sullivan & Cromwell)
What an assessment would have flagged: Expropriation risk, and how uncertain and slow legal recovery can be even after a win at first instance.
3. BP exits Rosneft after the invasion of Ukraine (2022)
BP announced its exit from its Rosneft stake and booked pre-tax charges of $24bn and $1.5bn relating to Russia in the first quarter of 2022, contributing to a headline loss of $20.4bn for the quarter. (CNBC)
What an assessment would have flagged: Concentration in a single state-linked partner in a country in confrontation with the West.
4. The UK's Energy Profits Levy (2022–2030)
The UK introduced a 25% levy on oil and gas profits from 26 May 2022, raised it to 35% from 1 January 2023 and to 38% from 1 November 2024, and extended it to 31 March 2030. (House of Commons Library)
What an assessment would have flagged: Windfall-tax risk when prices and public pressure rise, even in a stable democracy.
5. Niger nationalises the Somair uranium venture (2025)
After the July 2023 coup, Niger removed Orano's operational control of its mines in 2024 and announced in June 2025 that it would nationalise Somair, in which Orano held 63%. Orano said it would seek compensation through arbitration. (Al Jazeera)
What an assessment would have flagged: A coup followed by a review of mining concessions and a shift in foreign alignment.
6. Mali and Barrick's Loulo-Gounkoto mine (2023–2025)
A 2023 mining code raised royalties and state stakes. The dispute escalated to detained staff and the seizure of operations, and was settled in November 2025 with Barrick paying about $430m and accepting the new code. (Claims Journal)
What an assessment would have flagged: A new mining code, government cash needs and pressure on one large operator.
7. Red Sea shipping attacks (2023–2024)
Attacks on shipping cut Suez Canal trade volumes by 50% year on year in the first two months of 2024, while transits around the Cape of Good Hope rose 74%, adding ten days or more to journeys. (IMF)
What an assessment would have flagged: Dependence on a single route through a conflict zone.
8. The Gulf war and the Strait of Hormuz (2026)
After strikes on Iran began on 28 February 2026, war-risk premiums for Gulf voyages rose to around 5% of ship value; by 7 September traffic through Hormuz had fallen to about ten commodity ships a day and Brent was near $97. (Al Jazeera)
What an assessment would have flagged: Escalation risk around a chokepoint, and its effect on insurance and energy costs.
9. US tariffs reset twice in 2026 (2026)
On 20 February 2026 the US Supreme Court ruled that IEEPA does not authorise tariffs; a temporary 10% global tariff followed, replaced from 24 July by Section 301 tariffs, with the UK at a flat 10%. (Holland & Knight)
What an assessment would have flagged: Policy volatility in a major export market, and legal challenges as a source of further change.
10. A UK company fined for dealing with a sanctioned airline (2026)
OFSI published a £1.0m penalty against Sabre Global Technologies in May 2026 for continuing to provide services to a designated Russian airline, including routing payments around restrictions. (Cooley)
What an assessment would have flagged: Counterparty sanctions exposure, and ignoring warnings from banks.
What Do These Political Risk Examples Have in Common?
Most had visible warning signs: new laws or codes, a change of government, rising confrontation between states, or a counterparty with political or sanctioned connections.
- Fiscal pressure precedes fiscal grabs. Windfall taxes and mining-code changes follow high prices and tight budgets.
- Regime change precedes contract reviews. New rulers often revisit concessions signed by their predecessors.
- Legal protection helps, but slowly. Arbitration and court cases take years and can be reversed.
- Chokepoints concentrate risk. Single routes through conflict zones turn distant wars into local costs.
- Counterparties carry political risk. Sanctions exposure usually arrives through a partner, customer or supplier.
What Are Political Hazard Examples?
“Political hazard” is often used for the events themselves: coups, riots, terrorism, war, seizure of assets and sudden capital controls.
Insurers use similar lists. Political risk insurance typically covers expropriation, currency inconvertibility, political violence and contract frustration; see political risk consulting vs insurance for what is and is not covered.
Which Political Risk Examples Matter Most for UK Companies Now?
Sanctions enforcement, conflict around shipping routes, US trade policy and investment screening.
In 2026 the cases most likely to reach a London boardroom are counterparties with sanctioned links, Gulf and Red Sea disruption (in September 2026 the Houthis took control of Yemen's entire Red Sea coastline, according to Al Jazeera), tariffs and the National Security and Investment Act regime. Our 2026 outlook summary covers the wider picture.
How Can a Company Avoid Becoming the Next Example?
Assess before committing, structure for protection, choose partners carefully, monitor triggers and plan an exit.
- Assess the specific decision, including who owns and influences your counterparties; see political risk assessment.
- Use treaty protection, contract terms and insurance where the exposure justifies them.
- Avoid concentration in one state-linked partner, route or licence.
- Monitor the indicators that preceded the cases above.
- Agree in advance what would make you pause, reduce or exit; see political risk management.
The best political risk consulting firms in London do this work for boards and deal teams; our ranking shows how they compare.
Political Risk Consultancies in London That Can Help
These London firms do this kind of work. Scores, strengths and watch-outs for each are in our 2026 ranking.
Control Risks
Political, security and crisis support for companies exposed to conflict and regime change across many countries.
Read our reviewThe Risk Advisory Group
Political intelligence for tenders, licensing, market entry and negotiations with governments.
Read our reviewCompare the Best Political Risk Consulting Firms in London
We score ten London firms on nine weighted criteria, from evidence traceability and sanctions-exposure mapping to Chambers recognition, and show every sub-score.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are some examples of political risk in business?
Expropriation of assets, sanctions on a partner, a windfall tax, a coup that freezes contracts, a new mining code, tariffs in an export market and attacks on shipping routes.
What is an example of macro political risk?
War or capital controls that affect every foreign business in a country, such as the impact of the 2022 invasion of Ukraine on Western companies in Russia.
What is an example of micro political risk?
A measure aimed at one sector or company, such as the UK's Energy Profits Levy on oil and gas or Niger's nationalisation of the Somair uranium venture.
How much can political risk cost a company?
It can run to billions. BP booked pre-tax charges of $25.5bn in the first quarter of 2022 when it exited Russia.
Is a windfall tax a political risk?
Yes. It is a government decision that changes the economics of an investment after it was made.
Can companies recover losses from expropriation?
Sometimes, through investment treaty arbitration or courts, but it can take years. ConocoPhillips won an $8.7bn award against Venezuela in 2019; a $16.1bn judgment over YPF was reversed in 2026.
Are sanctions a political risk?
Yes. Sanctions are decisions by states that can make a partner, customer or route unusable overnight, and breaches carry penalties.
How can political risk be predicted?
Not precisely, but warning signs such as new laws, regime change, rising state confrontation and connected counterparties can be tracked. See how to assess political risk.
Sources
- IISD: ICSID tribunal awards ConocoPhillips $8.7bn (2019)
- Sullivan & Cromwell: Second Circuit reverses judgment against Argentina (Apr 2026)
- CNBC: BP first-quarter 2022 results
- House of Commons Library: taxation of North Sea oil and gas
- Al Jazeera: Niger nationalises uranium mine (20 Jun 2025)
- Claims Journal: Barrick to pay Mali $430m (26 Nov 2025)
- IMF: Red Sea attacks disrupt global trade (7 Mar 2024)
- Al Jazeera: oil prices and Hormuz (7 Sep 2026)
- Insurance Journal: Lloyd's and Gulf war-risk cover (19 Mar 2026)
- Holland & Knight: US tariffs (Jul 2026)
- Cooley: OFSI fines tech company £1m (13 Jul 2026)
- Al Jazeera: Houthis seize Bab al-Mandeb coast (13 Sep 2026)
All sources checked 1 October 2026. Company statements are first-party and not independently audited. See our editorial policy and disclosures.
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