Molfar Intelligence
Turns outlook themes into a source-referenced picture of one market, counterparty or deal.
Read our reviewPolitical Risks 2026: What the Major Reports and Risk Maps Say
A summary of the main 2026 political risk outlooks, where they agree, what has happened since January, and what it means for UK companies. Updated as the year develops.
Key Takeaways
- The 2026 outlooks agree on fragmentation: geoeconomic confrontation, a more transactional US and pressure on European security top most lists.
- The WEF ranked geoeconomic confrontation as the risk most likely to trigger a global crisis in 2026.
- Political risks and violence reached their highest ever position (7th) in the Allianz Risk Barometer.
- Events since January have been sharper than most forecasts: war with Iran from 28 February, Hormuz disruption, two US tariff resets and the Houthis' seizure of Yemen's Red Sea coast.
- For UK companies the year has meant tougher sanctions enforcement, investment screening, higher shipping and energy costs, and a new prime minister.
- Outlooks are context, not decisions. Translate them into indicators for your own markets and partners.
What Are the Main Political Risks in 2026?
The main political risks of 2026 are geoeconomic confrontation and trade conflict, a more unpredictable US, pressure on European security from Russia, war in the Gulf and Red Sea, and rising social unrest.
| Report | Headline finding |
|---|---|
| Top Risks 2026 Eurasia Group, 5 Jan 2026 | Leads with a US “political revolution”, followed by China's bet on electric technologies, US assertiveness in the Western Hemisphere, “Europe under siege” and Russia's hybrid “second front” against NATO. |
| Global Risks Report 2026 World Economic Forum, 14 Jan 2026 | Geoeconomic confrontation is the risk most likely to trigger a material global crisis in 2026 (18% of respondents), ahead of state-based armed conflict (14%); half of respondents expect turbulent or stormy conditions over two years. |
| Allianz Risk Barometer 2026 Allianz Commercial, 14 Jan 2026 | Political risks and violence rose two places to 7th, their highest ever ranking; cyber stays first and AI jumps to second. |
| Munich Security Report 2026: “Under Destruction” Munich Security Conference, 9 Feb 2026 | Describes “wrecking-ball politics” straining the post-1945 international order as Western politics turns more transactional. |
| Political Risk Report 2026 Marsh, 26 Feb 2026 | Warns of decision paralysis: leaders expect major geopolitical change but spend too little time preparing for its strategic impact; flags supply chains, infrastructure conflict and political influence on business. |
| RiskMap 2026 Control Risks, 2026 | Frames the year around a “new rules, no rules” world, activated societies, organised crime, the AI compute contest and the trap of treating volatility as normal. |
| Political Risk Outlook Verisk Maplecroft, 4 Dec 2025 | Seven of the world's largest economies, including the UK, are among the countries facing the most disruption from unrest; attacks on commercial property rose in 53 countries. |
Summaries are our own, based on each publisher's public materials. Follow the links for the full reports.
Where Do the 2026 Reports Agree?
On four themes: confrontation between major economies, a less predictable United States, European insecurity, and the spread of political pressure into business decisions.
- Geoeconomics. The WEF, Eurasia Group and Marsh all put trade and economic confrontation near the top.
- The United States. Eurasia Group's first two risks and Control Risks' “new rules, no rules” theme both centre on US policy.
- Europe and Russia. Eurasia Group's “Europe under siege” and “Russia's second front” and the Munich Security Report's “Under Destruction” point the same way.
- Unrest. Verisk Maplecroft and Control Risks' “activated societies” both expect more disruptive protest, including in large democracies.
What Has Happened Since the 2026 Outlooks Were Published?
Several risks materialised faster than expected: war with Iran from 28 February, disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, two US tariff resets, the Houthis' seizure of Yemen's Red Sea coast and a change of UK prime minister.
- Iran and Hormuz. After strikes began on 28 February, war-risk premiums for Gulf voyages rose to around 5% of ship value (Insurance Journal); by 7 September Hormuz traffic had fallen to about ten commodity ships a day and Brent was near $97 (Al Jazeera).
- Red Sea. By 13 September the Houthis controlled Yemen's entire Red Sea coastline and, in effect, the Bab al-Mandeb strait (Al Jazeera).
- US tariffs. The Supreme Court ruled on 20 February that IEEPA does not authorise tariffs; Section 301 tariffs followed from 24 July, with the UK at a flat 10% (Holland & Knight).
- UK politics. Andy Burnham became prime minister on 20 July and held his first call with Xi Jinping on 8 September (Caixin).
What Do the 2026 Political Risks Mean for UK Businesses?
Higher costs and more compliance: dearer shipping, insurance and energy; tougher sanctions enforcement; closer screening of investment; and tariffs in the US market.
- Sanctions. The UK made nearly 500 Russia designations by mid-June (GOV.UK), OFSI published a £1.0m penalty in May (Cooley) and the Chancellor announced plans in September to double OFSI's maximum penalty (CMS).
- Investment screening. National Security and Investment Act notifications rose 16% to 1,324 in 2025–26 (Kirkland & Ellis).
- Shipping and energy. Gulf and Red Sea disruption raises freight, insurance and fuel costs.
- Trade. The 10% US tariff on UK goods, after two legal and policy resets, keeps planning uncertain.
What Do the 2026 Political Risk Maps Show?
Risk maps from insurers and brokers rate countries for political risk, terrorism and political violence; they are best used to compare markets and set monitoring priorities.
Aon's 2026 Risk Map is an interactive portal covering political risk, terrorism and political violence, available on registration (Aon). Control Risks also publishes RiskMap maps alongside its forecast. For how maps and indices score countries, see our comparison of political risk indices.
How Should You Use Annual Political Risk Outlooks?
As a checklist of themes to test against your own exposures, not as a forecast for your decision.
- List the themes that touch your markets, partners or routes.
- For each, write the indicator that would show it reaching you, such as a designation in your supply chain or a new tariff on your product.
- Assign owners and review dates.
- Commission a decision-specific assessment where an exposure is material; see political risk assessment.
Outlooks are written for many readers. The top political risk consultancies in London turn the same themes into an assessment of one market, counterparty or deal.
What Did the Outlooks Underplay?
Speed. Most framed Gulf and Red Sea risk as escalation scenarios; by September both had become operating conditions for shipping and insurance.
That is a general lesson about outlooks: they are good at naming themes and weaker on timing. Monitoring with specific triggers is what turns a theme into a timely decision. See political risk examples for cases where the warning signs were visible early, and what political risk is for the underlying concepts.
How Often Is This Page Updated?
We review it as major reports are published and when significant events change the picture; the date at the top shows the last update.
Next scheduled review: when the main 2027 outlooks are published in January 2027.
Political Risk Consultancies in London That Can Help
These London firms do this kind of work. Scores, strengths and watch-outs for each are in our 2026 ranking.
Control Risks
Publishes the annual RiskMap forecast and advises on multi-country exposure.
Read our reviewEurasia Group
Publishes Top Risks each January and advises investors on macro-political scenarios.
Read our reviewCompare the Best Political Risk Consulting Firms in London
We score ten London firms on nine weighted criteria, from evidence traceability and sanctions-exposure mapping to Chambers recognition, and show every sub-score.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the top geopolitical risks for 2026?
Most outlooks put geoeconomic confrontation, US policy unpredictability, Russia and European security, conflict in the Middle East and social unrest at the top.
What does the Marsh Political Risk Report 2026 say?
Published on 26 February 2026, it warns that leaders risk decision paralysis by focusing on short-term volatility instead of preparing for strategic geopolitical change.
What is Eurasia Group's top risk for 2026?
A US “political revolution”, followed by China's bet on electric technologies and US assertiveness in the Western Hemisphere.
What does the WEF Global Risks Report 2026 rank as the top risk?
Geoeconomic confrontation, chosen by 18% of respondents as the risk most likely to trigger a material global crisis in 2026.
Where do political risks rank in the Allianz Risk Barometer 2026?
Seventh, their highest ever position, behind cyber, AI, business interruption and others.
Is there a political risk map for 2026?
Yes. Aon publishes an interactive 2026 Risk Map covering political risk, terrorism and political violence, and Control Risks publishes RiskMap maps.
What do 2026 political risks mean for UK companies?
Higher shipping, insurance and energy costs, tougher sanctions enforcement, more investment screening and a 10% US tariff on UK goods.
How should a company use political risk outlooks?
As a checklist of themes to test against its own exposures, with indicators and owners, and decision-specific assessments where exposures are material.
Who can turn a 2026 outlook into advice for my business?
Political risk consultancies. See our 2026 ranking of London firms.
Sources
- Eurasia Group: Top Risks 2026
- World Economic Forum: Global Risks Report 2026
- Allianz Commercial: Allianz Risk Barometer 2026
- Munich Security Conference: Munich Security Report 2026: “Under Destruction”
- Marsh: Political Risk Report 2026
- Control Risks: RiskMap 2026
- Verisk Maplecroft: Political Risk Outlook
- Insurance Journal: Lloyd's and Gulf war-risk cover (19 Mar 2026)
- Al Jazeera: oil prices and Hormuz (7 Sep 2026)
- Al Jazeera: Houthis seize Bab al-Mandeb coast (13 Sep 2026)
- Holland & Knight: US tariffs (Jul 2026)
- Caixin Global: Xi and Burnham call (9 Sep 2026)
- GOV.UK: UK Russia sanctions package (16 Jun 2026)
- Cooley: OFSI fines tech company £1m (13 Jul 2026)
- CMS: UK to double OFSI penalties (22 Sep 2026)
- Kirkland & Ellis: UK NSI Act update 2026
- Aon: Risk Map 2026
All sources checked 1 October 2026. Company statements are first-party and not independently audited. See our editorial policy and disclosures.
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