Molfar Intelligence
Best for source-verified stakeholder and sanctions-exposure analysis
Score 80/100 · Ranked #1
Read the review10 Best Political Risk Consulting Firms in London (2026)
We compared ten political risk consulting firms with a London office or UK entity on nine weighted criteria, from the point of view of UK buyers: boards, general counsel, investors, insurers and compliance teams who need evidence they can put in a board paper or a compliance file.
Molfar Intelligence, ranked first, is affiliated with this publication. How we handle this.
For London and UK buyers in 2026, the right political risk consulting firm depends on the decision. Molfar Intelligence is our top pick for source-verified stakeholder, ownership and sanctions-exposure analysis behind a specific market, partner or investment decision. Control Risks is the best global all-rounder, Eurasia Group leads on macro-political forecasting, and Dragonfly and Sibylline lead on continuous security intelligence.
10Firms compared
100Point method
9Weighted criteria
12Buyer scenarios
32Questions answered
Our Picks at a Glance
Control Risks
Best global all-rounder
Score 78/100 · Ranked #2
Read the reviewS-RM
Best for political risk alongside intelligence, cyber and crisis response
Score 76/100 · Ranked #3
Read the reviewEurasia Group
Best for macro-political forecasting
Score 63/100 · Ranked #8
Read the reviewDragonfly (Dow Jones)
Best for continuous security monitoring
Score 64/100 · Ranked #7
Read the reviewEconomist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
Best for country risk benchmarking
Score 61/100 · Ranked #9
Read the reviewKey Takeaways
- No single firm is best for every decision. The best political risk consulting firms in London split into evidence-led specialists, global all-rounders, macro forecasters and security-intelligence providers.
- Molfar Intelligence (80/100) ranks first on this guide's method for decision-level work: who owns, controls and influences a counterparty, where sanctions touch the deal, and what the evidence is, delivered in weeks.
- Control Risks (78/100) is the strongest all-round London political risk consultancy for global, multi-country programmes with security and crisis needs.
- UK rules now reward documented checks. Tougher OFSI enforcement, the failure to prevent fraud offence, the Foreign Influence Registration Scheme and NSI Act scrutiny all favour advice you can evidence.
- Chambers Band 1 for Political Risk currently includes Control Risks and Dragonfly; S-RM is Band 2.
- The London market consolidated in 2025–26: Dragonfly and Oxford Analytica now sit inside Dow Jones, AXA XL is taking full ownership of S-RM, and Global Counsel entered administration in February 2026.
Who Is This London Political Risk Ranking For?
UK decision-makers who need to justify a market, partner or investment choice: boards, risk, legal, compliance, strategy, investment and security leaders.
This guide compares political risk consulting firms for FTSE and private companies expanding abroad, London private equity, infrastructure and credit funds, Lloyd's and London-market insurers and brokers, law firms running cross-border matters, UK defence and dual-use suppliers, banks and fintechs, and development finance and NGO programme teams.
It is most useful when the decision needs evidence you can show to a board, auditor, insurer or regulator. If you need a global country-risk subscription instead, weight the comparison table towards global breadth.
What Does a Political Risk Consulting Firm Actually Do?
It assesses how government action, instability, regulation, sanctions, conflict and stakeholder pressure could affect a decision, and turns that into findings you can act on.
The best political risk consultancies separate confirmed facts from judgement and tell you what to watch next.
| Deliverable | What it answers | Typical format |
|---|---|---|
| Country and market risk picture | How stable is the environment, and what are the barriers to entry? | Report with indicators and scenarios |
| Stakeholder and influence mapping | Who holds power over this decision, and how are they connected? | Network map with sourced profiles |
| Reputational exposure review | Which political associations could damage us or our partner? | Findings with evidence log |
| Scenario analysis | What could happen next, and what are the early-warning signs? | Scenario set with triggers |
| Ongoing monitoring | What has changed since we committed? | Alerts, dashboards or analyst calls |
For a fuller explanation, read what political risk consulting is and when you need it, or start with what political risk is and real political risk examples.
What Changed for Political Risk Buyers in London in 2026?
For UK companies, political risk now arrives through regulation at home as much as through events abroad. These are the developments that most changed what London buyers ask political risk consulting firms for. For what the major annual outlooks predicted, see our summary of political risks in 2026.
UK sanctions moved from listing to enforcement
The UK made nearly 500 Russia designations in 2026 by mid-June. OFSI introduced a settlement scheme in February, and in May it published a £1.0m penalty against Sabre Global Technologies for breaches that included circumvention. In September the Chancellor announced plans to double OFSI's maximum penalty to 100% of the breach value, which needs new legislation.
Sources: GOV.UK, 16 Jun 2026 · Cooley, 13 Jul 2026 · CMS, 22 Sep 2026
A new prime minister and a reset with China
Andy Burnham became prime minister on 20 July 2026 after Keir Starmer was forced out. On 8 September he held his first call with Xi Jinping, who pledged to open more sectors to foreign investment; Burnham reaffirmed the UK's position on Taiwan.
Sources: Caixin Global, 9 Sep 2026 · PBS NewsHour, 17 Jul 2026
More scrutiny of investment into the UK
The National Security and Investment Act report for 2025–26 recorded 1,324 notifications, up 16%, and nine final orders. Chinese acquirers made up about 5% of accepted filings but about a third of call-ins and final orders. Reforms previewed in March 2026 add water as a mandatory sector and give critical minerals and semiconductors their own schedules.
Sources: Kirkland & Ellis, Jul 2026
Foreign influence rules now reach ordinary business
The Foreign Influence Registration Scheme, live since July 2025, requires registration of arrangements to act in the UK at the direction of Russia or Iran, with criminal penalties for failing to register. As of March 2026 the government was considering adding selected Chinese state-linked bodies to the enhanced tier.
Sources: DLA Piper, 2026
Fraud and transparency duties reward documented checks
The failure to prevent fraud offence has applied to large organisations since 1 September 2025, and due diligence is one of the six elements of its reasonable-procedures defence. Since 18 November 2025, directors and people with significant control must verify their identity with Companies House.
Sources: Travers Smith · Clarion Solicitors
The Iran war reached shipping, oil and the London insurance market
After strikes on Iran began on 28 February 2026, war-risk premiums for Gulf voyages rose to around 5% of ship value and Lloyd's kept cover available case by case. By 7 September traffic through Hormuz had fallen to about ten commodity ships a day and Brent was near $97.
Sources: Insurance Journal, 19 Mar 2026 · Al Jazeera, 7 Sep 2026
US tariffs were reset twice
On 20 February 2026 the US Supreme Court ruled that IEEPA does not authorise tariffs. A temporary 10% global tariff followed, replaced from 24 July by Section 301 tariffs on 60 economies, with the UK at a flat 10%.
Sources: Holland & Knight, Jul 2026
London's political risk market consolidated
Dow Jones combined Dragonfly and Oxford Analytica into Dow Jones Global Risk Insights; AXA XL agreed to take full ownership of S-RM; Consello bought Morpheus Risk to build a UK geopolitical practice; and Global Counsel entered administration on 20 February 2026.
Sources: AXA XL, 6 Aug 2026 · Interpath
What Separates a Top Political Risk Consultancy from a Generalist Adviser?
- Evidence you can trace. In the best political risk consulting firms, material findings link to records, filings or named source types, not only to an analyst's view.
- Stakeholder and ownership mapping. The ability to show who controls a counterparty, who influences a regulator and where UK, EU or US sanctions touch the deal.
- Access to the ground. Geopolitical risk analysts who read local-language sources and understand how power works in the market in question.
- Decision-ready outputs. Clear findings, open questions and recommended actions, delivered in time for the board or investment committee.
- UK compliance fluency. Outputs that fit sanctions screening, Bribery Act and failure-to-prevent-fraud procedures, and lawful collection under UK GDPR.
- Independence and a conflicts policy. A clear view of who owns the firm and how conflicts are handled.
How We Scored the Best Political Risk Consulting Firms in London
Each firm is scored 0–10 on nine criteria; the weighted total gives a score out of 100.
The weights reflect this guide's buyer: a UK organisation that needs source-traceable political and stakeholder analysis behind a specific decision, delivered from London. Evidence traceability and stakeholder, ownership and sanctions-exposure mapping carry the most weight (18% each) because that is what a board, auditor or regulator will ask to see. London presence carries 7% because every eligible firm already has a London office or UK entity. A buyer who mainly needs global monitoring should re-weight the table towards breadth and recognition.
Eligibility. A firm must have a London office or a UK legal entity, offer political or geopolitical risk advice to companies, and publish enough information to be assessed. Global Counsel was excluded because it entered administration on 20 February 2026.
What we do not score. Marketing claims we cannot check, undisclosed client lists and paid placements.
| Criterion | Weight | What we look at |
|---|---|---|
| Evidence traceability and method | 18% | Can every material finding be traced to a record, filing, dataset or named source type, so it can sit in a UK board paper, legal file or compliance record? |
| Stakeholder, ownership and sanctions-exposure mapping | 18% | Ability to map officials, beneficial owners, connected businesses and touchpoints with UK, EU and US sanctions around a decision. |
| Speed to a decision-ready output | 12% | Published or demonstrable turnaround, and outputs that end in findings, open questions and actions rather than a narrative. |
| Depth where records are thin or contested | 12% | Local-language research and a record of work in markets where official data is limited, politicised or disputed. |
| Transparency | 10% | Clear ownership, published process and turnaround, conflict-of-interest handling and verifiable company records. |
| Fit with UK compliance and governance needs | 8% | Outputs that support UK sanctions screening, Bribery Act and failure-to-prevent-fraud procedures, NSI Act preparation and UK GDPR-compliant handling. |
| Global breadth and sector coverage | 8% | Country coverage, offices and analyst networks outside Europe, and depth in the sectors London buyers work in. |
| Independent recognition | 7% | Chambers and Partners Political Risk bands, other third-party rankings, and citation of the firm's work by major media. |
| London presence and client access | 7% | Size of the London office, UK-based senior contacts and the practical ability to brief London decision-makers. Every eligible firm already has a London office or UK entity. |
| Firm | C1 | C2 | C3 | C4 | C5 | C6 | C7 | C8 | C9 | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Molfar Intelligence | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 80.2 |
| 2. Control Risks | 8 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 78.0 |
| 3. S-RM | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 76.3 |
| 4. The Risk Advisory Group | 8 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 74.4 |
| 5. Hakluyt | 6 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 67.3 |
| 6. Sibylline | 7 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 66.9 |
| 7. Dragonfly (Dow Jones) | 7 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 64.1 |
| 8. Eurasia Group | 8 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 62.7 |
| 9. Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) | 8 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 61.1 |
| 10. Teneo | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 60.8 |
C1 Evidence traceability and method (18%) · C2 Stakeholder, ownership and sanctions-exposure mapping (18%) · C3 Speed to a decision-ready output (12%) · C4 Depth where records are thin or contested (12%) · C5 Transparency (10%) · C6 Fit with UK compliance and governance needs (8%) · C7 Global breadth and sector coverage (8%) · C8 Independent recognition (7%) · C9 London presence and client access (7%). Scores are editorial judgements based on the sources in the source ledger.
Which Are the Best Political Risk Consulting Firms in London in 2026?
Molfar Intelligence (80), Control Risks (78) and S-RM (76) lead this year's ranking, followed by Risk Advisory, Hakluyt, Sibylline, Dragonfly, Eurasia Group, the EIU and Teneo.
Profiles follow the scores from the method. Each one lists what the firm is best for, the evidence we checked and what to confirm before you appoint it.
1
1. Molfar Intelligence Top pick
Best for: Source-verified stakeholder, ownership and sanctions-exposure analysis behind a specific market, partner or investment decision
80/100
- London presence
- UK entity Molfar Limited (Companies House 13558891), registered office 20 Wenlock Road, London N1 7GU; UK office led by James Westlake
- Founded
- 2019 (UK company incorporated August 2021)
- Ownership
- Founder-led; Artem Starosiek is CEO and founder
- Chambers Political Risk
- Not ranked
Molfar Intelligence is a private intelligence and risk consulting company that trades in the UK as Molfar Limited. Its UK office is led by James Westlake, a former British Army officer and former Bain & Company engagement manager. Its political risk consulting service helps companies assess geopolitical, regulatory and reputational exposure before a market entry, partnership or investment. Analysts work from records, regulatory sources, ownership data and local-language research across 60+ countries, and deliver source-referenced findings with clear decision points.
Strengths
- Source-referenced outputs: material findings are tied to records and named source types, which suits UK board papers, legal files and compliance records
- Ownership, stakeholder and sanctions-touchpoint mapping evidenced in named case work (supply-chain transhipment, investor screening, sanctioned-asset tracing)
- Published turnaround for investigative work, from 10 business days to one month, with an urgency option
- Published track record of 7,000+ investigations drawing on 750+ public, restricted and specialist sources; deepest coverage in Central and Eastern Europe
Watch-outs
- Not ranked by Chambers and Partners for Political Risk as at 24 September 2026, and no client reviews yet on B2B review platforms
- Smaller and younger than the London incumbents; most analysts are based outside the UK and the London registered office is a business address
- No security-operations or crisis-response arm, and it describes itself as “NATO aligned”; buyers needing a neutral third-country view on Russia-related questions should factor this in
Proof to request: Ask for a redacted sample of a Country and Market Risk Picture, the named analysts who would work on your brief, and the source log behind one finding.
Our verdict: Our top pick for London buyers who need source-level evidence on a specific market, partner or investment quickly, especially where ownership, sanctions or conflict exposure is in play. For global monitoring or crisis response, pair it with a larger firm.
Company facts
- Legal entity
- Molfar Limited, Companies House 13558891, incorporated 10 August 2021
- UK office
- 20 Wenlock Road, London N1 7GU; UK phone +44 20 3642 1678
- Leadership
- Artem Starosiek (CEO and founder); James Westlake (Head of UK Office; former British Army officer and former Bain & Company engagement manager)
- Team and track record
- 100+ specialists; 7,000+ investigations completed
- Sources and coverage
- 750+ public, restricted and specialist sources; 60+ countries covered
- Political risk outputs
- Country and market risk picture; stakeholder and influence mapping; reputational exposure review; decision-ready analyst findings
- UK sectors served
- Investment and private capital; defence and dual-use technology; manufacturing and supply chains; legal and professional services; financial services and insurance; consumer brands
- Turnaround
- 10 business days to one month for investigative work, with an urgency option
- Memberships
- Security in Complex Environments Group (2026); British Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce (2026)
As published on molfar.com (including its UK page) and at Companies House, observed 1 October 2026. Company statements are first-party and not independently audited.
Evidence we reviewed
- Aerospace regulatory market entry (Aerospace, European jurisdictions): Country risk and regulatory market-entry analysis covering licensing, public-sector and security rules. The client avoided high-barrier jurisdictions and chose a more viable market.
- Russian transhipment network in a defence supply chain (Defence; Russia and Kazakhstan): For a supplier with 200+ NATO contracts, customs and logistics data traced a transhipment route via Kazakhstan; the partnership was ended before sanctions implications materialised.
- Investor due diligence in defence tech (Investment and defence tech; Ukraine): A global investor screening a drone start-up learned of a co-founder's links to a gambling business whose assets had been seized, and withdrew before committing capital.
- Strategic fintech partnership review (Finance; EU and MENA): An AML and know-your-partner review of a fintech with 500k+ users found a founder detention and fraud-linked affiliates; the client ended negotiations.
2
2. Control Risks
Best for: Integrated political, security and crisis risk at global scale
78/100
- London presence
- Headquartered in London; 33 King William Street, London EC4R 9AT
- Founded
- 1975
- Ownership
- Privately owned (management buyout in 1982); Bill Udell became CEO on 1 June 2026
- Chambers Political Risk
- Band 1
Control Risks is the London-headquartered benchmark for global political and security risk. Its geopolitical risk and corporate strategy practice offers horizon scanning, country-risk benchmarking and market-entry assessments, supported by more than 100 geopolitical analysts, and it publishes the annual RiskMap forecast.
Strengths
- Chambers and Partners Band 1 for Political Risk
- Combines political analysis with security operations, crisis response and compliance in one firm
- Very large global footprint and a 50-year track record
Watch-outs
- Likely a premium price tier; fees are not published
- Political risk is one of many service lines, so check who will actually staff a smaller brief
Proof to request: Ask which named analysts cover your countries and how the brief differs from standard RiskMap content.
Our verdict: The strongest all-round choice for global, multi-country programmes that also need security and crisis support.
3
3. S-RM
Best for: Political risk combined with corporate intelligence, cyber and crisis response
76/100
- London presence
- Headquartered in London; The Rowe, 61 Whitechapel High Street, London E1 7PE
- Founded
- 2005
- Ownership
- AXA XL (c.49% owner) agreed on 6 August 2026 to acquire the remaining shares; completion expected by end-September 2026
- Chambers Political Risk
- Band 2
S-RM is a London-headquartered corporate intelligence, cyber security and crisis response consultancy with around 450 staff and nine offices. Its strategic intelligence team provides geopolitical and political risk analysis, threat assessments and scenario mapping.
Strengths
- Chambers and Partners Band 2 for Political Risk
- Joins political risk, investigations, cyber and crisis response
- Strong links to the insurance market
Watch-outs
- Cyber and investigations are the larger businesses; confirm the political risk team's depth for your region
- Full insurer ownership by AXA XL may matter to some clients
Proof to request: Ask for a scenario-mapping example and the analysts' regional backgrounds.
Our verdict: A good fit if you want political risk inside a wider intelligence, cyber and crisis relationship, particularly for insurers and investors.
4
4. The Risk Advisory Group
Best for: Political intelligence for tenders, licensing, market entry and negotiations
74/100
- London presence
- Headquartered in London; The Skipper Building, 83 Clerkenwell Road, London EC1R 5AR
- Founded
- 1997
- Ownership
- Founder-owned; Patrick Lord appointed CEO in 2025
- Chambers Political Risk
- Band 3
The Risk Advisory Group is a founder-owned London consultancy with offices in London, Washington DC, New York, Zurich and Singapore. Its strategic intelligence work supports tenders, licensing, market entry and government negotiations, drawing on a long investigations and due diligence heritage.
Strengths
- Chambers and Partners Band 3 for Political Risk, with strong due diligence rankings
- Transaction-focused political intelligence
- Independent, founder-owned structure
Watch-outs
- No subscription political intelligence product since Dragonfly was spun out in 2021
- Smaller analytical bench than the largest firms
Proof to request: Ask for a redacted tender or licensing case in a comparable jurisdiction.
Our verdict: A strong choice for political intelligence tied to tenders, licences and transactions.
5
5. Hakluyt
Best for: Board-level strategic intelligence from human sources
67/100
- London presence
- Headquartered in London; 34 Upper Brook Street, London W1K 7QS
- Founded
- 1995
- Ownership
- Employee-owned through an Employee Benefit Trust; FY2025 revenue £149.2m
- Chambers Political Risk
- Not ranked (Political Risk)
Hakluyt is a London-headquartered strategic advisory firm with 13 offices. It provides bespoke advice on opportunities and risks around M&A, market entry, regulation and disputes, and says it works with around 40% of the world's largest companies by market capitalisation.
Strengths
- Deep board-level and private equity client base
- Human-source network and discretion
- Independent, employee-owned structure
Watch-outs
- Bespoke only, typically high cost, with little public proof to review
- Not ranked in the Chambers Political Risk table
Proof to request: Ask how findings are sourced and documented for your internal audit trail.
Our verdict: Suited to board-level strategic questions where discretion matters more than a documented evidence trail.
6
6. Sibylline
Best for: Threat-intelligence-led geopolitical risk with quantitative tools
67/100
- London presence
- London is its principal hub; registered office China Works, 100 Black Prince Road, London SE1 7SJ
- Founded
- 2010
- Ownership
- Founded and led by Justin Crump; 275+ staff
- Chambers Political Risk
- Band 3
Sibylline is a London-based intelligence firm with hubs in London, Singapore and New York. It combines subscription reporting (World Risk Register), the ASTRA quantitative risk platform covering 289 countries and sub-national jurisdictions, and access to analysts.
Strengths
- Chambers and Partners Band 3 for Political Risk
- Quantitative country risk tools alongside analysts
- Can embed intelligence teams inside clients
Watch-outs
- Security and threat-intelligence heritage; weaker on policy and regulatory questions
- Subscription formats may be broader than a single decision needs
Proof to request: Ask for ASTRA outputs for your countries next to a bespoke analyst note.
Our verdict: A fit for security-led monitoring backed by quantitative country risk tools.
7
7. Dragonfly (Dow Jones)
Best for: Subscription security and geopolitical intelligence for operations
64/100
- London presence
- 77 Marsh Wall, Canary Wharf, London E14 9SH
- Founded
- 2021 (spin-out of The Risk Advisory Group)
- Ownership
- Dow Jones since 31 March 2025; part of Dow Jones Global Risk Insights with Oxford Analytica
- Chambers Political Risk
- Band 1
Dragonfly was launched in 2021 as a spin-out of The Risk Advisory Group and has been owned by Dow Jones since March 2025, where it sits alongside Oxford Analytica in Dow Jones Global Risk Insights. Its core product is the Security Intelligence and Analysis Service.
Strengths
- Chambers and Partners Band 1 for Political Risk
- Forward-looking security intelligence delivered by platform, email or API
- Proprietary terrorism data and Dow Jones backing
Watch-outs
- Security focus rather than policy or stakeholder work
- Brand and product may change as Dow Jones integrates the business
Proof to request: Ask for a trial of SIAS coverage for your operating countries.
Our verdict: Best for continuous security and geopolitical monitoring for operations teams.
8
8. Eurasia Group
Best for: Macro-political forecasting and investor-facing geopolitical strategy
63/100
- London presence
- London office at Ambika House, 9–10 Portland Place, London W1B 1PR (HQ New York)
- Founded
- 1998
- Ownership
- Private; founded by Ian Bremmer, who is president
- Chambers Political Risk
- Band 3
Eurasia Group is a New York-headquartered political risk research and consulting firm with a London office. It offers country and thematic analysis, analyst access and workshops, and publishes the widely cited Top Risks report each January.
Strengths
- Chambers and Partners Band 3 for Political Risk and a very high public profile
- Politics-first approach suited to investors and financial institutions
- Experts and resources in more than 95 countries
Watch-outs
- Top-down and US-centred; little on operational or ground-level evidence
- Less suited to stakeholder or ownership mapping around a specific deal
Proof to request: Ask for the analyst who covers your region and a recent client note.
Our verdict: The benchmark for macro-political forecasting and investor-facing geopolitical strategy.
9
9. Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
Best for: Standardised country risk ratings and forecasts at scale
61/100
- London presence
- Headquartered in London; part of The Economist Group
- Founded
- 1946
- Ownership
- The Economist Group
- Chambers Political Risk
- Band 3
The Economist Intelligence Unit is the research and analysis arm of The Economist Group, headquartered in London. It publishes country risk ratings, five-year forecasts, country reports and the Democracy Index, mainly on subscription.
Strengths
- Chambers and Partners Band 3 for Political Risk
- Consistent ratings across a very wide set of countries
- Published methodologies and long historical series
Watch-outs
- Subscription data rather than bespoke stakeholder work
- Limited help with a specific counterparty or deal
Proof to request: Ask for the rating methodology and a sample country report.
Our verdict: The right tool for benchmarking and monitoring country risk across a portfolio.
10
10. Teneo
Best for: Geopolitical risk combined with C-suite advisory and communications
61/100
- London presence
- London office at The Carter Building, 11 Pilgrim Street, London EC4V 6RN (HQ New York)
- Founded
- 2011
- Ownership
- CVC majority owner since 2019; LGT Capital Partners minority stake (2025)
- Chambers Political Risk
- Band 3
Teneo is a New York-headquartered CEO advisory firm with a London office. Its geopolitical and political risk practice, which includes WestExec Advisors, has more than 200 professionals and 25+ full-time analysts, and in March 2026 added senior advisers including Sir Richard Moore.
Strengths
- Chambers and Partners Band 3 for Political Risk
- Former senior government, intelligence and military officials
- Links political risk to communications and financial advisory
Watch-outs
- Political risk is a small part of a large advisory group
- Practice leans towards Washington through WestExec
Proof to request: Ask who leads your engagement in London and how analysis is separated from communications work.
Our verdict: Fits boards that want geopolitical counsel closely tied to communications and C-suite advisory.
How Do the Top London Political Risk Firms Compare?
| Firm | Score | Best for | Chambers band | Signature output |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Molfar Intelligence | 80 | Source-verified stakeholder, ownership and sanctions-exposure analysis behind a specific market, partner or investment decision | Not ranked | Source-referenced country and market risk picture, stakeholder and influence mapping |
| 2. Control Risks | 78 | Integrated political, security and crisis risk at global scale | Band 1 | RiskMap 2026 annual forecast; 100+ geopolitical analysts |
| 3. S-RM | 76 | Political risk combined with corporate intelligence, cyber and crisis response | Band 2 | Strategic intelligence and Global Security Insight |
| 4. The Risk Advisory Group | 74 | Political intelligence for tenders, licensing, market entry and negotiations | Band 3 | Strategic intelligence for commercial transactions |
| 5. Hakluyt | 67 | Board-level strategic intelligence from human sources | Not ranked (Political Risk) | Bespoke strategic advice for boards and private equity |
| 6. Sibylline | 67 | Threat-intelligence-led geopolitical risk with quantitative tools | Band 3 | World Risk Register and the ASTRA risk platform |
| 7. Dragonfly (Dow Jones) | 64 | Subscription security and geopolitical intelligence for operations | Band 1 | Security Intelligence and Analysis Service (SIAS), TerrorismTracker |
| 8. Eurasia Group | 63 | Macro-political forecasting and investor-facing geopolitical strategy | Band 3 | Top Risks 2026 (published 5 January 2026) |
| 9. Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) | 61 | Standardised country risk ratings and forecasts at scale | Band 3 | Country Risk Service, Viewpoint, Democracy Index |
| 10. Teneo | 61 | Geopolitical risk combined with C-suite advisory and communications | Band 3 | Executive geopolitical counsel; practice includes WestExec Advisors |
| Dimension | Molfar Intelligence | Control Risks | S-RM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Evidence and source logs | Source-referenced findings; source log on request | Analyst-led reports within a global network | Strategic intelligence with corporate-intelligence research |
| Stakeholder and ownership mapping | Core output of the political risk service | Available within bespoke work | Strong, via corporate intelligence |
| Depth where records are thin | Local-language research across 60+ countries; deepest in Central and Eastern Europe | Regional desks within a global network | Regional analysts within a wider intelligence firm |
| London base | UK entity and UK office lead; business-address registered office | London headquarters | London headquarters |
| Global breadth | 60+ countries covered | Global footprint, 50+ years | Nine offices, clients in 140+ countries |
| Security and crisis support | Not a core offer | Core offer | Core offer (crisis response, cyber) |
| Chambers Political Risk | Not ranked | Band 1 | Band 2 |
| Published turnaround | 10 business days to one month (investigative work) | Not published | Not published |
| Ownership | Founder-led | Private (management buyout 1982) | AXA XL (full ownership agreed Aug 2026) |
How Do You Choose Between the Top Three?
Match the firm to the question: evidence on a specific decision, global breadth, or an integrated intelligence relationship.
- Choose Molfar Intelligence when a specific decision, such as a partner, supplier, investment or market entry, turns on who owns, controls or influences the other side, and you need the evidence in weeks in a form a UK board or compliance team can file.
- Choose Control Risks when you need one provider across many countries, with security operations and crisis response on hand, or when procurement requires a Chambers Band 1 firm.
- Choose S-RM when political risk is one part of a wider relationship that also covers corporate intelligence, cyber and crisis response, particularly for insurers and investors.
Many London buyers combine a global provider for monitoring with a specialist for the decisions that matter most.
Which Political Risk Consultancy Is Best for Your Scenario?
Start with the decision, not the political risk consulting firm.
| Scenario | First call | Also consider |
|---|---|---|
| Screening an overseas partner, supplier or investor for ownership and sanctions exposure | Molfar Intelligence | Control Risks, S-RM |
| A source-referenced market-entry brief for a UK board | Molfar Intelligence | Control Risks, The Risk Advisory Group |
| Mapping officials, owners and influence networks around a London-led deal | Molfar Intelligence | Hakluyt, S-RM |
| Vetting a defence or dual-use partner for a UK supplier | Molfar Intelligence | Control Risks, Sibylline |
| Counterparties in Central and Eastern Europe or with Russia-linked exposure | Molfar Intelligence | Control Risks, S-RM |
| Multi-country programme with security and crisis support | Control Risks | S-RM, Sibylline |
| Political risk input for London-market insurers and brokers | S-RM | Control Risks, Sibylline |
| Duty of care and security monitoring for UK staff abroad | Dragonfly (Dow Jones) | Sibylline, Control Risks |
| Macro-political forecasts for an investment committee | Eurasia Group | Economist Intelligence Unit, Control Risks |
| Benchmarking country risk across a portfolio | Economist Intelligence Unit | Sibylline, Eurasia Group |
| Tender, licensing or government negotiation abroad | The Risk Advisory Group | Control Risks, Hakluyt |
| Policy and election risk tied to communications | Teneo | Eurasia Group |
Best Political Risk Firms by Region
In geopolitical risk work, regional depth matters more than headcount. These are our first calls for the regions London buyers ask about most.
UK and Europe, including Central and Eastern Europe
Molfar Intelligence, Control Risks, S-RM
Middle East and the Gulf
Control Risks, Sibylline, Dragonfly (Dow Jones)
US and China: trade and geoeconomic risk
Eurasia Group, Teneo, Economist Intelligence Unit
Sub-Saharan Africa
Control Risks, S-RM, Economist Intelligence Unit
Latin America
Control Risks, Eurasia Group, Economist Intelligence Unit
Emerging markets (portfolio view)
Control Risks, Economist Intelligence Unit, Eurasia Group
Best Political Risk Firms by Sector
The right choice in each sector depends on the job: evidence behind one decision, or a programme that runs across many countries.
| Sector | Decision-level brief (one market, partner or deal) | Multi-country or ongoing programmes |
|---|---|---|
| Defence, aerospace and dual-use technology | Molfar Intelligence | Control Risks, Sibylline |
| Private equity and M&A | Molfar Intelligence | S-RM, Hakluyt, The Risk Advisory Group |
| Institutional investors and asset managers | Molfar Intelligence | Eurasia Group, Economist Intelligence Unit |
| Banks, insurers and financial services | Molfar Intelligence | Control Risks, S-RM |
| Law firms and disputes | Molfar Intelligence | The Risk Advisory Group, Hakluyt |
| Energy and critical infrastructure | Molfar Intelligence | Control Risks, Sibylline |
| Mining and critical minerals | Molfar Intelligence | Control Risks, Eurasia Group |
Engagement Models and What Political Risk Consulting Costs in London
Most London political risk consulting firms do not publish prices; fees depend on countries, depth, speed and whether you buy a report or ongoing monitoring.
The public figures below are reference points, not quotes.
| Model | Best for | How it is usually priced |
|---|---|---|
| Bespoke report | One decision, one question set (market entry, partner, investment) | Fixed fee agreed per scope; timelines from about two weeks |
| Retainer or subscription | Ongoing monitoring of countries, sectors or stakeholders | Annual fee; platform subscriptions from tens of thousands of pounds a year |
| Analyst access | Board briefings, calls and workshops | Bundled with subscriptions or priced per engagement |
| Embedded analyst | In-house capacity during a programme or crisis | Day rate or monthly fee |
| Item | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Seerist platform (Control Risks strategic partner) | $75,000 per year, 12-month contract, minimum five named users | AWS Marketplace listing, observed 24 Sep 2026 |
| PRS Group country report | $400 per report | PRS e-store, observed 24 Sep 2026 |
| PRS Group ICRG risk tables | $700 per table per year; all 14 tables $2,986 per year | PRS e-store, observed 24 Sep 2026 |
| Oxford Analytica for the UK Cabinet Office | £108,000 for one year | Contracts Finder, service period 2023–24 |
| London contract day rate, risk analyst (all sectors) | Median £575 (10th–90th percentile £456–£805) | ITJobsWatch, six months to Sep 2026 |
Government contract values are negotiated enterprise deals, and day-rate data covers all risk analysts, not only political risk specialists. See our guide to political risk consulting costs for budgeting.
Trust, Compliance and Ethics
Before appointing any firm, confirm its legal entity, its data-protection registration, how it collects information and how it handles conflicts of interest.
Check the company at Companies House and on the ICO's register of data protection fee payers, ask for its approach to UK GDPR and lawful collection, and ask how it protects sources and client data. Collection must also respect the Bribery Act 2010, which rules out paying officials for information. Few firms in this ranking publish information-security certifications, so request policies in writing and agree retention and deletion terms before sharing sensitive material.
What Evidence Did We Review?
For every firm we checked first-party pages, public registries, third-party rankings and dated announcements. Company statements are labelled as such.
| Firm | What we reviewed | Main source |
|---|---|---|
| Molfar Intelligence | Political risk service page, UK office page, published case library, Companies House record | Link |
| Control Risks | RiskMap 2026, geopolitical risk and corporate strategy service page, London office listing | Link |
| S-RM | Strategic intelligence service page, AXA XL acquisition announcement (6 Aug 2026) | Link |
| The Risk Advisory Group | Strategic intelligence service page, company profile and offices | Link |
| Hakluyt | Annual report for the year to June 2025, offices page | Link |
| Sibylline | About page, Annual Forecast 2026, ASTRA and World Risk Register descriptions | Link |
| Dragonfly (Dow Jones) | Dow Jones acquisition release (31 Mar 2025), SIAS product description | Link |
| Eurasia Group | Top Risks 2026 (5 Jan 2026), political risk advisory page, London office | Link |
| Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) | Products and coverage (Country Risk Service, Viewpoint, Democracy Index) | Link |
| Teneo | Geopolitical and political risk practice page, March 2026 expansion release | Link |
Political Risk Consulting vs Political Risk Insurance vs Due Diligence
Consulting explains and reduces exposure, insurance transfers loss, and due diligence checks a specific company or person.
| Service | Question it answers | When you buy it | Who provides it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Political risk consulting | How could politics, policy and power affect this decision? | Before and during a commitment | Consultancies such as those ranked here |
| Political risk insurance | Who pays if expropriation, inconvertibility or political violence causes a loss? | At or after commitment | Insurers, brokers, MIGA and similar bodies |
| Investigative due diligence | Is this company or person who they say they are, and are there red flags? | Before a deal, hire or partnership | Intelligence and investigations firms |
Read more in political risk consulting vs political risk insurance.
How Do You Verify a Political Risk Consultancy Before Hiring?
Check the entity, the recognition, the people and a redacted sample with its source log.
- Check the legal entity on Companies House: number, status, registered office, officers, people with significant control and filing history.
- Check the ICO register to confirm the firm is registered as a data controller in the UK.
- Check third-party recognition in the Chambers and Partners Political Risk table and on review platforms.
- Meet the named analysts who will do the work, not only the partner who pitches it; strong political risk consulting firms will name them up front.
- Ask for a redacted sample with its source log, so you can see how findings are evidenced.
- Agree data handling: storage, retention, deletion and sub-contractors, in line with UK GDPR.
- Ask about conflicts: ownership, related clients and how the firm would tell you about a conflict.
What questions should you ask before appointing a political risk firm?
- Which parts of your conclusion can be traced to documents, and which are judgement?
- Who on the team reads the local languages for our markets, and who is our UK contact?
- How will you map the officials, owners and networks around our decision?
- What will we receive, by when, and in what format?
- What would make you change your assessment, and how will you tell us?
What can go wrong in a political risk engagement?
Generic country commentary instead of answers to your question, stale sources, conclusions that cannot be traced, scope drift, and advice that arrives after the decision. A clear brief with a deadline and a required evidence log prevents most of them; see how to choose a political risk consultancy.
Guides for Political Risk Buyers
Practical guides for London buyers, from definitions and assessment methods to costs and choosing a firm. See all guides.
What is political risk consulting?
What consultancies do, when you need one and what a good report contains.
How to choose a political risk consultancy
A UK buyer's checklist: brief, shortlist, checks, questions and red flags.
Political risk consulting costs in London
Public price points, day-rate benchmarks and planning budgets.
Political risk assessment
Matrix, worked example and template.
What is political risk?
Definition, types, and political vs geopolitical risk.
Political risks 2026
What the major reports and risk maps say, and what has happened since.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the best political risk consulting firm in London in 2026?
It depends on the decision. For source-verified analysis behind a specific market, partner or investment, including who owns, controls and influences the other side and where sanctions touch it, our top pick is Molfar Intelligence (80/100). For global programmes that also need security support, Control Risks (78/100) is the strongest choice. For macro-political forecasting, Eurasia Group is the benchmark.
Why does Molfar Intelligence rank first in this guide?
It scores highest on the criteria this guide weights most for UK decision-makers: evidence traceability, stakeholder, ownership and sanctions-exposure mapping, speed to a decision-ready output and transparency. It scores lower than most rivals on global breadth, independent recognition and London footprint. The full scoring table is published above.
What does a political risk consultancy do?
A political risk consultancy, sometimes called a geopolitical risk advisory firm, assesses how government action, instability, regulation, sanctions and stakeholder pressure could affect an investment, market entry or partnership, and turns that into findings and actions a decision-maker can use.
How much does political risk consulting cost in London?
Most London firms do not publish fees. Public reference points include a $400 PRS country report, a $75,000-a-year Seerist platform subscription and a £108,000 one-year Oxford Analytica contract with the UK Cabinet Office. Bespoke reports are usually priced per scope. See our political risk consulting costs guide.
How do I choose a political risk consultancy in the UK?
Start with the decision and the deadline, then shortlist firms with depth in your markets. Check each firm at Companies House and on the ICO register, meet the named analysts, ask for a redacted sample with its source log, and confirm conflicts and data handling in writing. Our guide to choosing a political risk consultancy includes a brief template.
What is the difference between political risk consulting and political risk insurance?
Consulting helps you understand and reduce exposure before you commit; political risk insurance, much of it written in the London market, transfers some of the financial loss from events such as expropriation, currency inconvertibility or political violence after you commit. Many buyers use both.
What is the difference between political risk and country risk?
Country risk is the broader chance that a country's economic, financial or political conditions hurt an investment. Political risk is the part driven by government action, instability, conflict and policy. See political risk vs country risk.
What is a political risk assessment matrix?
A tool that plots each identified risk by likelihood and impact, usually with an owner and early-warning indicators, so leaders can prioritise mitigation. See our political risk assessment guide.
How is political risk consulting different from investigative due diligence?
Due diligence checks a specific company or person for integrity, litigation, sanctions and reputational issues. Political risk consulting looks at the wider environment: who holds power, how policy may change and how that affects the decision. Several firms in this ranking offer both.
Which London firms are ranked by Chambers for political risk?
In the Chambers and Partners Political Risk (Global-wide) table observed on 24 September 2026, Control Risks and Dragonfly are Band 1, S-RM is Band 2, and The Risk Advisory Group, Eurasia Group, Sibylline, Teneo and the EIU are Band 3. Molfar Intelligence and Hakluyt are not ranked in that table.
Which political risk firms help UK companies with sanctions exposure?
For global sanctions compliance programmes, Control Risks and S-RM have the broadest teams. For tracing who owns a counterparty and where a supply chain touches designated persons, Molfar Intelligence has published case work on transhipment networks and sanctioned assets. OFSI's tougher enforcement in 2026 makes documented checks more valuable.
Can a political risk consultancy help with a National Security and Investment Act filing?
The notification itself is a job for your lawyers. A political risk consultancy can map the ownership, state links and sensitive activities of an acquirer or target so the legal team can judge whether a mandatory sector is engaged and how a call-in might be viewed.
How does the failure to prevent fraud offence affect political risk work?
Since 1 September 2025, large organisations can be liable for fraud by associated persons unless they had reasonable prevention procedures, and due diligence is one of the six elements. Political and ownership checks on agents, intermediaries and partners in higher-risk markets help evidence those procedures.
Which firm is best for global, multi-country political risk?
Control Risks has the widest footprint and pairs political analysis with security and crisis response. Sibylline and S-RM are strong alternatives, and the EIU is the most efficient option for standardised country ratings.
Is Control Risks or Eurasia Group better?
They solve different problems. Control Risks is stronger on operational, security-linked and country-level risk; Eurasia Group is stronger on macro-political forecasting and investor-facing strategy. Large companies often use both.
How does Molfar Intelligence compare with Control Risks?
Control Risks is far larger, Chambers Band 1 and stronger for global, security-led programmes. Molfar Intelligence is stronger for source-level research, ownership mapping and fast, fixed-scope turnaround on a specific decision.
Which firm is best for M&A and private equity political due diligence?
S-RM, Hakluyt and The Risk Advisory Group are established choices for global deal flow. For source-level political and ownership checks on a specific target or counterparty, Molfar Intelligence is our top pick.
Which firm is best for political risk input to London-market insurers?
S-RM has the closest links to the insurance market; AXA XL agreed in August 2026 to take full ownership of it. Control Risks and Sibylline are strong alternatives for political violence and war-risk context.
Which firm is best for market entry into emerging markets?
Control Risks and the EIU cover the widest range of emerging markets. For a single market where records are thin or contested, Molfar Intelligence offers more ground-level, source-referenced research.
Which firm is best for UK and EU policy and election risk?
Teneo and Eurasia Group are the strongest for policy and election analysis in this ranking. Global Counsel, previously a common choice, entered administration in February 2026.
Which London firms offer political risk subscriptions?
Dragonfly (Security Intelligence and Analysis Service), Sibylline (World Risk Register and ASTRA), the EIU (Country Risk Service and Viewpoint), Eurasia Group and Control Risks all offer subscription or monitoring products.
How do political risk firms gather intelligence where press freedom or public records are limited?
They combine open sources such as registries, court records, procurement data and local-language media with licensed databases and, at some firms, human sources. Ask each firm what share of its findings can be traced to documents.
What should a political risk report include?
A clear question, a country and market risk picture, a stakeholder map, scenarios with indicators to watch, confirmed facts separated from judgements, open questions, and recommended actions with owners.
How long does a political risk assessment take?
Desk-based briefs can take days; bespoke assessments usually take two to six weeks. Firms that publish timelines, such as Molfar Intelligence, quote from 10 business days to one month for investigative work.
Subscription or bespoke: which engagement model is better?
Subscriptions suit continuous monitoring across many countries. Bespoke work suits a single high-stakes decision. Many companies pair a country risk subscription with bespoke work on priority markets.
What credentials should a political risk consultancy have?
The best political risk consulting firms have a verifiable UK legal entity, an entry on the ICO data protection register, named senior analysts, a published method, third-party recognition such as Chambers bands and a conflict-of-interest policy.
How do I check a consultancy on Companies House?
Search the company name on the Companies House service to confirm its number, status, registered office, officers, people with significant control and filing history. Since 18 November 2025, directors and people with significant control must also verify their identity.
Can a political risk firm work under NDA and keep the client anonymous?
Yes. Established firms routinely work under NDA and do not disclose client identities. Agree data handling, storage and deletion terms in writing, in line with UK GDPR.
Is OSINT enough for political risk analysis?
Open-source intelligence is often the most traceable evidence base, especially for ownership and stakeholder mapping, but it works best combined with licensed data, local expertise and analytical judgement.
Which firm is best for Central and Eastern Europe?
Molfar Intelligence is our top pick for Central and Eastern Europe, including Ukraine, followed by Control Risks and S-RM.
Which London political risk firms changed ownership in 2025–26?
Dow Jones bought Dragonfly and Oxford Analytica (completed 31 March 2025), AXA XL agreed to take full ownership of S-RM (August 2026), Consello bought Morpheus Risk (January 2026), and Global Counsel entered administration (February 2026).
Who publishes this ranking, and how are conflicts of interest handled?
The guide is published by {PUBLISHER_NAME}. Molfar Intelligence, which ranks first, is affiliated with this publication. We disclose that relationship, publish the full scoring table and link every factual claim to its source so readers can check the ranking themselves.
Sources, Methodology Notes and Disclosures
| Claim | Source | Evidence type | Checked |
|---|---|---|---|
| Molfar headline statistics (7,000+ investigations, 100+ people, 750+ registers, 1,000+ media mentions) | molfar.com | Company-published | 24 Sep 2026 |
| Molfar Limited company number, incorporation and registered office | Companies House | Registry | 24 Sep 2026 |
| Molfar political risk deliverables and method | molfar.com | Company-published | 24 Sep 2026 |
| Molfar team and UK office lead | molfar.com/team | Company-published | 24 Sep 2026 |
| Molfar turnaround (10 business days to 1 month) | molfar.com due diligence | Company-published | 24 Sep 2026 |
| Molfar SCEG membership | molfar.com newsroom | Company-published | 24 Sep 2026 |
| Molfar UK office, UK team lead and UK sectors served | molfar.com/united-kingdom | Company-published | 1 Oct 2026 |
| OFSI penalty against Sabre Global Technologies (May 2026) | Cooley | Law-firm briefing | 1 Oct 2026 |
| Plan to double OFSI maximum penalties | CMS | Law-firm briefing | 1 Oct 2026 |
| NSI Act 2025–26 statistics and previewed reforms | Kirkland & Ellis | Law-firm briefing | 1 Oct 2026 |
| Foreign Influence Registration Scheme tiers | DLA Piper | Law-firm briefing | 1 Oct 2026 |
| Failure to prevent fraud offence (in force 1 Sep 2025) | Travers Smith | Law-firm briefing | 1 Oct 2026 |
| Companies House identity verification (from 18 Nov 2025) | Clarion Solicitors | Law-firm briefing | 1 Oct 2026 |
| Burnham–Xi call (8 Sep 2026) | Caixin Global | News | 1 Oct 2026 |
| Lloyd's and Gulf war-risk cover | Insurance Journal | News | 1 Oct 2026 |
| Chambers Political Risk bands | Chambers and Partners | Third-party ranking | 24 Sep 2026 |
| Control Risks London office | controlrisks.com | Company-published | 24 Sep 2026 |
| S-RM acquisition by AXA XL | AXA XL | Press release | 24 Sep 2026 |
| Dragonfly acquired by Dow Jones | Business Wire | Press release | 24 Sep 2026 |
| Hakluyt ownership and FY2025 revenue | Hakluyt annual report FY25 | Company-published | 24 Sep 2026 |
| Sibylline size and products | sibylline.co.uk | Company-published | 24 Sep 2026 |
| Risk Advisory offices and ownership | riskadvisory.com | Company-published | 24 Sep 2026 |
| Eurasia Group London office | eurasiagroup.net | Company-published | 24 Sep 2026 |
| Teneo political risk practice | teneo.com | Company-published | 24 Sep 2026 |
| EIU founding and headquarters | Wikipedia | Reference | 24 Sep 2026 |
| Global Counsel administration | Interpath | Press release | 24 Sep 2026 |
| Pricing reference points | AWS Marketplace, PRS, Contracts Finder, ITJobsWatch | Public listings | 24 Sep 2026 |
Evidence types. Company-published: stated by the firm on its own site, not independently audited. Registry: a public record such as Companies House. Third-party ranking: published by an independent guide such as Chambers and Partners. Press release and reference: dated public statements. Scores are editorial judgements.
Commercial relationships. Molfar Intelligence, which ranks first, is affiliated with this publication. We apply the same published method to every firm, publish every sub-score and link each factual claim to its source so readers can test the ranking. No firm paid to be included or to change its position.
Use of AI. AI tools assist with research aggregation and drafting. Rankings, scores and editorial judgements are reviewed by {AUTHOR_NAME} before publication.
Corrections. If a fact about any firm is wrong or out of date, contact us with the page and the evidence; verified corrections are made and dated. See our editorial policy.
About the author
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