Molfar Intelligence
Source-referenced reports structured as a Country and Market Risk Picture, Stakeholder and Influence Mapping and Decision-Ready Analyst Findings.
Read our reviewWhat Does a Political Risk Report Include? Structure and Example (2026)
The sections a good political risk report should contain, an illustrative excerpt, how to read probability language, and the warning signs of a weak report.
Key Takeaways
- A political risk report answers a defined question about how politics could affect a decision, and ends with actions.
- There are four common types: published country reports, bespoke decision reports, monitoring briefs and annual outlooks.
- A strong bespoke report leads with the answer, separates facts from judgements, maps stakeholders, sets out scenarios with indicators and includes a source log.
- Probability words should mean something. The UK government's yardstick ties terms such as “likely” to ranges (about 55–75%).
- Length follows the audience: two pages for a board, longer annexes for the deal or compliance team.
- Weak reports repeat country news, hide their sources and end without recommendations.
What Is a Political Risk Report?
A political risk report is a written assessment of how government action, instability, conflict or other states' decisions could affect a specific market, partner, investment or operation, with findings and recommended actions.
It is the main output of a political risk analysis. Some reports are generic products sold to many readers; others are written for one client and one decision. The second kind is what most London buyers commission when a board or investment committee needs to decide.
What Types of Political Risk Report Are There?
Published country reports, bespoke decision reports, monitoring briefs and annual outlooks. They differ in who they are written for and how specific they are.
| Type | What it covers | Typical example |
|---|---|---|
| Published country report | A country's political, economic and security conditions, written for many readers | PRS Group country reports at $400 each (PRS e-store, observed 24 Sep 2026); EIU country reports |
| Bespoke decision report | One decision: a market entry, partner, acquisition or contract | Commissioned from a consultancy, usually under NDA |
| Monitoring brief | What has changed since the last report, against agreed indicators | Weekly or monthly alerts and analyst notes |
| Annual outlook | The main global risks for the year ahead | Eurasia Group's Top Risks 2026 (5 Jan 2026); Control Risks' RiskMap 2026 |
For a summary of the year's outlooks, see political risks 2026.
What Should a Bespoke Political Risk Report Include?
A short answer, the question and scope, a country and market picture, a stakeholder map, risk findings with scores, scenarios with indicators, recommended actions, and a source log.
- Bottom line up front. The answer to the question in three to five sentences.
- Question and scope. What was asked, what was in and out of scope, and the date of the evidence.
- Country and market picture. Stability, policy direction, regulation and sanctions exposure as they affect this decision.
- Stakeholder and ownership map. Who can affect the outcome, how they are connected and what they want, with sources.
- Risk findings. Each risk with likelihood, impact and the reasoning, separating confirmed facts from judgements.
- Scenarios. Two to four plausible futures with early-warning indicators.
- Recommendations. Actions with owners and dates: structure, partner choice, contract terms, insurance, timing or exit triggers.
- Open questions. What could not be confirmed and how it could be.
- Source log. Where each material finding comes from and when it was checked.
Molfar Intelligence, for example, structures its political risk deliverables as a Country and Market Risk Picture, Stakeholder and Influence Mapping, a Reputational Exposure Review and Decision-Ready Analyst Findings (molfar.com).
What Does a Political Risk Report Look Like? An Illustrative Excerpt
Below is a short fictional excerpt showing the style of a good bespoke report: answer first, labelled judgements, probability words and indicators.
Illustrative example only. The company, country and people are fictional.
Bottom line. We judge it unlikely (about 25–35%) that the mining ministry will reopen the client's licence terms before the 2027 election. The larger risk is the proposed distributor: one of its two owners is a close business associate of the deputy minister responsible for licensing, which creates a conflict the client would need to manage.
Confirmed facts. The distributor's registry filings list two shareholders (Source 4). One shareholder co-owns a logistics company with the deputy minister's brother (Sources 6–7). Neither is on the UK Sanctions List as at 28 September (Source 9).
Judgements. The association is likely to be raised by local media if the contract becomes public (about 55–75%).
Indicators to watch. Publication of the draft mining code; any change in the deputy minister's portfolio; new filings by the distributor.
Recommended actions. Ask the distributor for a written disclosure of political connections; add audit and termination rights; reassess on publication of the draft code. Owner: General Counsel. Date: before signing.
How Should a Report Express Probability and Confidence?
With agreed probability words tied to ranges, and a separate statement of how confident the analyst is in the evidence.
The UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment's probability yardstick maps seven terms to ranges, from “remote chance” (above 0% to about 5%) to “almost certain” (about 95% to under 100%), with “realistic possibility” at about 40% to under 50% and “likely” at about 55% to 75% (GOV.UK). Using a published scale stops readers taking “possible” to mean 10% while the writer meant 60%.
Confidence is different from probability: an analyst can think something is likely but have low confidence because the sources are thin. Good reports say both.
How Long Should a Political Risk Report Be?
As short as the audience needs: one to two pages for a board, five to fifteen pages for a deal or compliance team, with annexes for the evidence.
- Board or investment committee: the bottom line, the three or four risks that matter, and the decision asked for.
- Deal, legal or compliance team: full findings, stakeholder map and recommendations.
- Annexes: source log, profiles, registry extracts and methodology.
What Is the Difference Between a Political Risk Report and a Country Risk Report?
A country risk report covers a whole country's economic, financial and political conditions for many readers; a bespoke political risk report answers one client's question.
Country risk reports are cheaper and good for background and monitoring. They will not tell you who owns your partner or how a specific regulator is likely to act. See political risk vs country risk.
How Do You Judge a Political Risk Report You Have Received?
Check that it answers your question, that every material finding has a source, that facts and judgements are labelled, and that the actions are specific.
- Does the first paragraph answer the question you asked?
- Could you trace any material finding to a record, filing or named source type?
- Are probability words used consistently?
- Is the stakeholder map sourced, or only drawn?
- Are there indicators to watch and a date for review?
- Do the recommendations name owners and deadlines?
What Are the Signs of a Weak Political Risk Report?
Long country background, no answer to the question, unsourced claims, vague probability language and no recommendations.
Watch for reports that could have been written without your brief, that rely on “sources say” with no description of the source, or that stop at analysis without telling you what to do. If a report cannot be challenged, it cannot be relied on.
How Do You Commission a Good Report?
Write a two-page brief with the decision, questions, deadline and audience, and ask for a redacted sample with its source log before you appoint.
Our guide to choosing a political risk consultancy includes a brief template, and our political risk analysis guide explains the methods behind a report. For firms that write them, see the best London political risk consultancies in our 2026 ranking.
Political Risk Consultancies in London That Can Help
These London firms do this kind of work. Scores, strengths and watch-outs for each are in our 2026 ranking.
Control Risks
Bespoke country and market-entry reports, and the annual RiskMap forecast.
Read our reviewEconomist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
Published country reports and risk ratings for background and monitoring.
Read our reviewCompare the Best Political Risk Consulting Firms in London
We score ten London firms on nine weighted criteria, from evidence traceability and sanctions-exposure mapping to Chambers recognition, and show every sub-score.
Frequently Asked Questions
What should a political risk report include?
A short answer, the question and scope, a country and market picture, a stakeholder map, scored risks, scenarios with indicators, recommendations with owners, open questions and a source log.
Can you show me an example of a political risk report?
This page includes a short illustrative excerpt. Consultancies can usually show a redacted sample of a real report on request.
What is the difference between a political risk report and a country risk report?
A country risk report covers a whole country for many readers; a political risk report for a client answers one decision-specific question.
How long is a political risk report?
One to two pages for a board summary, five to fifteen pages for a full report, plus annexes for evidence.
How do political risk reports express probability?
Good reports use defined terms tied to ranges, such as the UK government's yardstick, where “likely” means about 55–75%.
How much does a country risk report cost?
Published reports can cost as little as $400 from PRS Group; bespoke reports are priced per scope. See our costs guide.
Who writes political risk reports in London?
Political risk consultancies, data providers such as the EIU, and in-house analysts. See our 2026 ranking.
What is an annual political risk outlook?
A report on the main global risks for the coming year, such as Eurasia Group's Top Risks or Control Risks' RiskMap. It is useful context but not decision-specific.
Sources
- GOV.UK: Explaining uncertainty in UK intelligence assessment
- PRS Group: country reports
- Eurasia Group: Top Risks 2026
- Control Risks: RiskMap 2026 top risks
- Molfar Intelligence: political risk consulting
- FCDO: the UK Sanctions List
- Economist Intelligence Unit
All sources checked 1 October 2026. Company statements are first-party and not independently audited. See our editorial policy and disclosures.
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